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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  December 22, 2009 12:00pm-2:00pm EST

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>> it's time for "call to action" on ma stocks to watch during afternoon trading. matt nesto is here with a look. >> if you love tug of wars, this is a great market to watch today because we had those two economic data points and are pointing in different directions and it looks for now that the home sales coming in better than expected, leading the weaker-than-expected downward revision of the third quarter gdp figure. so if you take a look at what i like the home boys, the homebuilders very strong, one of the best performing groups here today. all 12 of the members in the home builder's super composite index trading higher here today, kaybee homes, pulte, ryland and toll brothers all higher here
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today, 12 of 12 on the up. one thing i want to show you is the split between the dollar which is rising here today as you can see, versus the ten-year treasury yield is also rising and we're showing you the price. look at those headed in the opposite direction and there was this feeling in the marketplace that yields would be going higher in the face of an improving economy. if you take a look at the defensive leadership in the market today. this is very telling, food and beverage, tobacco, food and beverage retailers, super value on the rise, as well as the telecom service group, all defensive and the flipside. the yielding group here, the weakness only one of 24 industry groups is up or down more than 1% and its banks down more than 1.1%, media and utilities also weak. back to you. >> matt nesto. thanks so much. that will do it for us here on "the call." i'm melissa francis. >> i'm larry kudlow.
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see you at 7:00 on "the kudlow report" and "power lunch" is up next. and "power lunch" it is. welcome, everyone. i'm tyler math son. stocks marching higher at this hour. the nasdaq and the s&p 500 hitting highs for the year, boeing testing a second one of those dreamliners and ibm among the dow winners in hour. another 40-plus s&p stocks at 52-week highs led by tech shares. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. sue is off today. sue, feel better. steve cohen of sac capital known for very reich and very secr secretive. what was he thinking when he went on a nationally-syndicated talk show to reveal details of his sex life? >> 2010, we will drill down on the best dividend stocks, bank stocks you can look out and how will it pump up that portfolio from here and here's what cells on the menu. >> i'm jim goldman in the
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silicon valley bureau, as if cable companies don't have enough to worry about and not all powerful and terrific, comcast, now there might be a new and more serious threat from no less competitor than apple inc.. new subscriptions from apple tv and disney are bellying up to the bar. >> i'm diana olick in washington. a big jump in existing home sales and how much of that is government intervention in the housing market? we'll tell you. >> i'm jane wells in the san fernando valley. have you finished your christmas shopping sglt get over here. also, which retail stocks do well in the year after recession. start thinking. there will be a quiz. >> thank you very much. after summoning what he called wall street fat cats to the white house last week, president obama meeting with some slimmer felines, community bank ceos today to discuss housing foreclosures and financial reform. our hampton pearson is at the white house with the highlights. hi, hampton. >> reporter: hi, tyler, that
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meeting should be wrapping up right about now. essentially what the white house wanted to talk to community bankers about was ways to increase lending especially to small businesses, ways that they can play a bigger role in helping to stem the real estate crisis as well as trying to get their support for financial reform. on the flipside, what we're hearing was going to be the reality check that the bankers would deliver to this white house is number one, demand for loans and lending is a lot less than what's being reported because, frankly, the economy has yet to recover. the administration needs to do its part to have that happen especially in the name of job creation and frankly, the administration can't have it both ways. on the one hand calling on small any community banks to increase lending while toughening standards whether it's liquidity or the regulators looking over their shoulders. back to you. >> thank you, hampton. >> thanks, hampton. let's get to the market action, tech leading stocks higher and homebuilders are up on the strong rise and existing home
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sales and financials are among the losers, bob pisani kicks it off at the new york stock exchange. >> hello, dennis. take a look at the home builders and existing home sellers are up 7.3% and supply of home down a bit. these homebuilders have had a tough time and they've underperformed the overall market and in the last few days they've been moving up and nice gains today on the existing home sales numbers and the mortgage rates are creeping up and diana will give you more on what's happened. >> take a look at the airlines in a separate base. generally, revenue trends have been improving for the airlines and they, too, have been moving up. ubs made positive comments increasing their price target and some of them are doing well here today. finally, techs are at new highs and they've been in the market leaders all year and jabil had a very good earnings report and guided higher for the year. these are new highs of some of those big names. tradertalk.cnbc.com. brian, how are we looking over at the nasdaq?
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>> as you said, tech is showing some strength and across the board we've been in a range of 0.3% to the upside. it looks like the $30 a share is a new base. starbucks ad nauseam, every day it seems to hit a new high and they're up 1.9% and n video up 2.2% and they touched a new high. the 200 level, apple did get above it, but they did pull back down below and they pulled back slightly although it's at 600. ubs puts research in motion on its least preferred list and down 3%. bucking the trend to the downside. i want to point out that bucyrus up 3.9%. let's go to hairer sorn at the nine ex. >> everyone expected that opec would leave production levels unchanged and that's what they did and they would call for stricker compliance. the fact remains that opec's compliance is at 60% and 80% in
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february and they concern as to whether or not they would hold to these targets, particularly countries like nigeria and angola. j.p. morgan's lawrence eagle saying he sees it slipping to the mid-60s until there's further compliance from opec. we're looking at gold prices here that the lower as the dollar continues to shrink and copper holding up better and the industrial metal getting help from those data coming out of china showing that big surge in copper imports for november. michelle, back to you. >> thank you very much, sharon. the major averages up for a third day in a row following the jump in existing home sales. we also have the ten-year note yield rising to 3.75% and it's a level that we haven't reached since august. the yield at record steepness. historically, that's been a signal to back up stocks. is there now or still too many headwinds. alan nookman at a gora
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financials. bill, let me start with you. what is this yield curve telling us? is it tellsing us that the economy is better than a lot of us thought and it's a good signal to buy stocks. the yield curve is saying the banker boys are making a lot of money and the public realizes the strength of this thing. do i want to get as the guest said in the previous hour, get the heck away from bonds in 2010 and beyond? >> i think that's a good idea. get back to the stock points. i still think there's upside. the market obviously is fully aware that rates have to go up some time. it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, but you know, i think you want to be very careful here with treasurys because that can be eaten away. >> at what point did treasurys start to compete with stocks. >> you have a long way to go. if you look at where treasurys were before the great collapse. we've got a long way to go to get back to normal, and i think
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you will hit 3.75 and 4.25, and you have to watch the regulator. that's the only thing i fear. >> i was reading something the other day, back in the crisis around this time a year ago the spread between the libor, the bank overnitrate was 400 points that spread. now it's down to minus 17 points. that sounds like there should be a lot of lending available and it's not out there because people don't want it. what do you say? >> you're dealing with two ends of the curve and the front end is controlled by the fed. the long end is more driven by supply and demand and the market is telling us that interest rates will go up in the long run because we have to sell more debt and so forth. so those are kind of governed on their own just by the supply and demand and they had been supported by a strong bid. the fed was using the quantitative easing tool. >> guys, we have to interrupt you, but speaking of lending, president obama meeting with
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community bankers. let's listen in. >> it's good to see all of you. i just completed a meeting with 12 regional community banks to have the same conversation that i had with several larger banks last week, and that i've been having with ceos and companies across the country over the last year and that is how do we continue to consolidate the gains we've made during the course of this year in terms of economic recovery, but most importantly, how do we move forward over the next year so that businesses are getting the capital that they need and that we are starting to see people hired again and people able to finance their homes and finance college educations and so forth. community banks serve a vital function all across the country. they are folks who know their customers don't just lend the money and also provide them advice if there are entrepreneurs and getting started. they are intimately woven into
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the fabric of the community. i think it's fair to say that most of these community banks were not engaged in some of the hugely risky activities that help to precipitate the financial crisis. at the same time they continue to try to do their best in the local and regional markets to make sure that businesses who are now being affected by the overall recession are able to pick themselves back up. what i did was to go around the room and to hear from each of them, not all these communities are the same. we've got everything from kalamazoo to harlem to small communities and arkansas that focus mostly on farm loans. there were some general themes that were out there. one, that there are businesses that are looking for loans out there, that are profitable and ready to make money, and the key is to match them up with banks
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that are in a position to lend. there are some banks that have seen the increase in the savings rate and higher deposits give them a pretty good capital base and they're still con strained by some regulatory restraints. we are looking to see if the points to cut some of the red tape. we don't have direct influence over our independent regulators, but we think the more we can highlight in some ways the pendulum may have swung too far in the direction of not lending after a decade in which it had gone way too far in the direction of getting money out of the door no matter the risk. than if we can get that balance right and that there are businesses and communities out there that are ready to grow again and we need help make that happen. i also had a discussion with all these bankers about the prospects for financial regulatory reform. as i said, many of the issues
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when it comes to large, systemic banks and what precipitated the crisis on wall street, don't a ploy to these smaller banks. most of them are very supportive of the idea of financial regulatory reform and they just want to make sure that as we regulate better that that doesn't automatically mean that they're just loading them up with more paperwork and more burdens, and i do think we have an obligation to make sure that the regulatory schemes that we come up with are more streamlined and more efficient and are sending clearer signals to the banks involved. i did emphasize to them that community banks do have a responsibility to their customers and that many of the consumer protections and efforts to make -- to create a single consumer financial protection agency would apply to them, and
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we think that's important because every bank, large and small is providing credit cards and providing debit cards and providing mortgage loans and we think that the more we are making sure the banks aren't competing by how obscure the fine print is, but rather competing on the basis of the quality of their service and the terms of their loans, the better off consumers are going to be and ultimate low the better off banks are going to be as well. so i very much appreciate them all coming in. i think the main message they want everybody to take away and certainly this is the message they took away from the conversations here is that there remains enormous opportunities as we come out of this recession for businesses to start growing again and to start hiring again, and everything that we're going to be doing here in the white house over the next several
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months is going to be geared toward capitalizing and spurring additional lending, particularly to small businesses because we feel very optimistic that the worst is behind us and that now is the time for us to seize the opportunities. with that, i want to wish everybody -- if i don't see you guys before christmas, a happy christmas and merry christmas and a happy new year. all right? thank you, guys. >> president obama meeting with community bankers today and some of the highlights from what he was saying to the press that was gathered there that they acknowledge a little too much red tape when it comes to lending and maybe that's one of the reason, but saying also the community banks he believes should be subject to the consumer protection agency, that it will apply to them and he feels very optimistic that the worst is behind us when it comes to the economy. >> there was a moment of self-reflection. he said the pendulum may have swung too far in terms of regulatory restrictions that
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result in too little lending and that felt to me like a little bit of a backing away from some of the toughest rhetoric that he's had. though i've got to say if you're going to buy into the idea that you have a consumer protection agency that is supposed to protect against abuses in credit cards and lending and so forth. why shouldn't it apply to community banks? because, by the way, more of the community banks are the bonns that have actually failed than the national banks. his message coming out of this meeting was much kinder and much more conciliatory than his message coming out with the fat cats and the big guys and the big banks, but he still is asking these banks to serve two masters. we want you to worry about new regulation on consumer financial protection and the fdic wants to raise the capital reserve requirements and yet you're supposed to raise money and growing 3.5% and now it's growing 2.2% in the third
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quarter and i wonder how hard it is for banks to do both those things at the same time. >> he said right at the very end that he's going delay going to hawaii until the senate finishes up on healthcare. pushing health care reform and see if that leads to even more deals. right before christmas. we've got time. we can take our time. go ahead and go to hawaii, mr. president. >> we want to say good-bye to our guests and we'll have them back soon. up next, some are calling them the cable killer, apple may be partnering up with disney and cbs to offer tv over the internet. so could that change the economics of the whole tv business? also this hour, home sales surging to three-year highs and three major headwinds could blow the roof off the recovery. also investing in 2010, the best paying dividend stocks to boost their portfolio. get ready for the fast money
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you think cnbc tv is great in check out cnbc.com. they have a list of the best and worst stocks of the decade. some top ten s&p 500 performers over the last ten years, southwestern energy up 5,684%. xto energy, 3,000% and gilead sciences higher by more than
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1,000 percent in the last ten years. >> media giant, cvs and disney may be looking to jump onboard apple's plan to offer tv subscriptions over the web. cnbc silicon valley bureau chief jim goldman joins us with the projeshial more. jim? >> more indeed, just throwing in the indeed. apple doesn't tend to invent, dennis, as you know. it reinvents the mac, the ipod and the iphone and it has its sights set on the television industry. it was just a couple of years ago that apple unveiled apple tv. young technology them, but with the revamping of the online digital media store, itunes, apple tv may finally be coming of age. the subscription model being talked about now could expand those offerings and provide serious competition to more traditional programming outlets. with apple's recent acquisition of streaming media company along with plans for a mac tablet
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computer, are offering a compelling new way to enjoy media on the go. the key for an cell what kind of partnership it can forge. cbs is eyeing a deal and so does disney. that company's largest shareholders and it's not clear that a broad enough swathe of big media might sign on to this and look at the initiative as competition. time warner and comcast, they might have problems offering up their content to a distributor that might compete with the cable out'lls. not to mention the likes of dish network and other partnerships already in the works. it seems apple does in fact have its work cut out for it and it could certainly be an interesting development next year and apple usually has some big announcements in january. we'll see if this happens to be one of them. >> one thing, jim. i think other people in the cable tv business might be quaking in fear in this wondering will apple do what the television program business what itunes did to the music business. apple is the dominant player.
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it all, but sets prices but some musicmakers have been upset by ask you have to wonder how much opposition might issue out there, jim. >> it's a good point, but crowe have to look at the track record that itunes has established. apple did save the music industry, some would say, apple now exerts an enormous amount of influence and power and you bond per hollywood is able to seed that kind of control on yet another level to apple with something like this. if that happens, you'd have a much more balanced relationship between the two and that, of course, might delay any of this getting off the ground. >> this also does put apple and google yet again in another head-on collision, because google with youtube wants to dominate that space for on-demand television. the google just hit $600, right? what's ahead on the year? this is looking very good for google. should a company that's setting itself up so nicely for 2010 and taking advantage of so many of
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the key and most lucrative trends in technology right now. an droid on mobile. you have chrome coming to net books and now you have youtube and video on demand forging relationships with hollywood. google can be in 2010 what apple was in 2009 and exert, it on the technology scene. >> thanks very much. new numbers out on housing market is a comeback finally on the way? maybe not. some real headwinds on the way next year including the end of the tax credit for first-time buyers. can the real estate market guys keep mending? can it overcome these challenges. >> we'll chew that one over. >> check out the homebuilders. most of them higher with the exception of hovnanian.
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as we round out the year, one of the worst-performing stocks in 2009, eastman kodak down 34%. who prints their photos anymore, right? this is counterintuitive. one of the best-performing stocks is the commercial company. richard ellison won a contract to sell office buildings owned by the state of california. they're up 208% so far in 2009.
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>> as we speak about real estate. home sales sfurjd a third straight month, but get ready. there are some major headwinds in housing in 2010. the big question is will it blow the roof, those headwins off the housing recovery. our diana olick joins us from washington with more. >> you see this 7.4% jump in november home sales month to month and the record 44% jump year over year any you think we're out of the woods, right? not so fast. we all thought the first-time homebuyers tax credit was expiring in the end of november and big surprise, 58% of sales were first-timers getting in under the wire. regionally, the west is driving the increase and that's where you see investors buying up distressed properties. foreclosure sales were a third of the market. there may be some double counting in certain foreclosure hot spots baz investors were buying homes and quickly flipping them. prices were down 4.3% in november and that's year over year and that's the highest price drop we've seen in two
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years. prices are stabilizing, but foreclosures are still rising. >> the distressed sales are roughly one-third of the market today. i anticipated that he will remain one-third of the market in 2010, so we are looking at roughly comparable apple to apple comparisons and given the inventors on are being drawn down, the prices will begin to stabilize. >> they are still rising and the banks are holding on to a lot of inventory likely playing some kind of price game. realtycheck.cnbc.com. >> i'll go to the blog. you stay right there. senior u.s. economist at barclays capital. what do you think about what diana said, and potentially higher mortgage rates come spring time. >> it can cause volatility in the home sales status.
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what we see is the a large surge in home sales. they returned to the highest level since february '07. so it is a sharp up turn. the tax credit has been extended for april for signed contracts and you will see some decline in home sales and want retesting the levels you were at prior to this big run-up and probably it will fall back and you will see negative home sales prints. >> that's another significant headwind as well. rates should increase, but in that environment we think the economic backdrop it will be improving as well so even rates are increasing, supports won't have the support of the tax credit in the second half of the year and we think they will have support of the stronger economic backdrop. >> i've been shopping for an
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apartment in new york unsuccessfully. they're good and tight on their lending standards, but can't rising interest rates, say the fed starts to raise by june or july, and i'm thinking rising interest rates rather than hurting home sales can accelerate sales and make me want to get in there before i have to pay more each month on my low. >> for some people, sure. you want to time the market as best as you can, but there are many factors in place, want just the rate that you'll be getting. it's the ability to purchase a home and we're still in the early stages of a recovery, looking ahead to next year, the second half of the year we think it will be a very different environment where people have more confidence than we're willing to buy. >> interesting stuff. diane a if you were a banker, would you lend to dennis? >> i'm not going to bother answering that. the fact that dennis is worried about the fed raising interest rates in june. the fact that the bond market raises rates. the bond market is ahead of the
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fed. >> we're at historically low interest rates. it was 4.8% a couple of weeks ago and now over 5%. >> every time it moves it allows people to buy. >> it is headwinds and you have the tax buyer credit through april and housing prices at historically low rates and you have the foreclosure properties that the banks will start putting out there. i still think there's a lot of buying opportunity and it's just a question of how many people are in. >> i'll lend to dennis. if they won't, i will. >> thank you. >> -- send dennis money. >> straight ahead, you'll hear more and more from our market mavens' dividends are making a comeback and could be a smart play for 2010, but which dividend-paying stocks should you own. sometimes a dividend isn't as safe as it appears and we'll have the names you need to know. >> 12:45 eastern time the "fast money halftime report." we have the best time to trade the existing home sales members
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and a couple of months ago. "fast money" told you to go along the airlines. we'll tell you what to do with that trade now that the airlines are hot once again. that and more "the halftime report" first more "power lunch" right after this.
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as we come up with ideas for investing in 2010. you're hearing it more and more from our experts here on the air. dividend investing remains a sound course in times of market turmoil. case in point, the i shares attract etf which attract it is the portfolio of dividend-paying stocks has more than doubled with the s&p in the last month and is up 26% in the past six months of this year. here are the best dividend plays in 2010. president and ceo of rnc center capital management. surprised i would get that wrong. and jack pow well "smart money" magazine. this rally thus far, despite the gain we've seen in the dividend stocks has favored in the large cap stocks and will we see a shift now in the dividend-paying stocks. i think you'll see a shift and you're seeing it already by the statistics. i think that's being demand driven by investors that are changing their risk profile.
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they're coming through this and they're looking at that time into the future and they want to be in a position where they can smooth out their returns and make it more predictable and reduce the volatility and capture some additional income and as they look at that going into the mutual. in what will be a 10 to 12% environment and i've locked up 20% to 30% of the turn right out of the gate and i'm in a position to increase my income and the total returns are increasing. the demographics are very much in favor of the demand basis. >> the stock is just the grave owe top. >> i'm not so smart in this stuff, i always end up getting smashed in them. sometimes a high dividend is a sign of trouble. how do i discriminate between those dividends that are secure and those dividends that are high for the wrong reasons? >> you have to compare the size of the dividend with the earnings and the cash flow. you have to make sure that the companies in the kind of
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business where it's going to be able to support that dividend and if you haven't done well with dividend paying stocks in the past, don't lose faith because i really think that the whole game is about to change. we have a very skewed view over the past 20 years that there's these generous price gains in the skimpy dividends. that's not normal throughout the whole history of stock investing. typically it has been just the opposite. i think we'll return to this period. >> the s&p yield is much higher than it was. it's only 2%, though. 2% to me is a lousy yield and throughout most of history it was 3%, 4%, 5% over the past century. so i think we're going back to this period where investors need to say to themselves, if i'm not getting a dividend yield i'm not getting a return because price gains will be very skimpy going forward. >> hey, dan, let me push back on you a little bit. isn't there something awfully dull about this dividend topic? you buy stocks because you think that they're going to go up in price. you don't buy them because you want to get a dividend every quarter and you pay half of it
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to your taxes. >> well, i think that when you start to look at it as we were both mentioning is that the game was changing. if you're in a 30% environment then the dividend is much less significant and if you're in a 10% to 12% environment that becomes higher. as you go forward you don't have to give up appreciation when it's a higher dividend. when clough look at those type of companies, generally they're getting 85 to 90% of the upside. so you can still have the appreciation if you're doing all your underlying fundamental analysis for the capital appreciation and you captured the dividend without much cost. >> jack, also the dividend thing. you rule out tech stocks that way. they're both tech and dividend. verizon, tell us about that among your recommendations. verizon has a slowly dying landline business and a robust business and they're laying the fiber optic cable and they have a head start there over rival at&t, but you get a decent
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dividend that approaches 6%, somewhere between 5% and 6% on verizon. this is going to be a company having their premiere communications in america and you also like services. >> you like boeing. tell us your picks real quick? >> you can't ignore the health care area. even though we've had a significant rally off the bottom. i think when you have abbotts and the bristol-myers and the j&jes and the lilies and those are all 3%. if you look at the consumer staple area and you look at philip morris international, that's at 6% and when you look at altria you're almost 8% on that range. all of your consumer staple stocks will continue to do well and i agree as we start to look into the utility area, those will do well also. >> taxes on dividends go up at the end of 2010. >> have you bought dividend
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shares before? >> no. because the total return is what matters to me. it's not the price gain. it's what i earn in total that matters. >> dennis likes to live dangerously. they're in my retirement. >> still ahead, downloadable apps for smart phones are red hot, but which ones are indispensable for the business traveler? stick around. we'll tell you. this is the final countdown. just three shopping days left until christmas. which companies will reap the riches as the final hour ticks down. sounds like a question for jane wells. thing as taking a chance? as having to decide to go for it? at the hartford, we help businesses of all kinds... feel confident doing what they do best. by protecting your business, your property, your people. you've counted on us for 200 years. let's embrace tomorrow. and with the hartford behind you,
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let's take a look at 2009 winners in the s&p 500 xl capital, up $14 a share. i'll put my glasses on. 403%. tenet health care, who said health care reform would be good for the insurers and four are back from the dead. 300 stocks of the year. >> then there are the losers, marshall and eisley, huntington bank and citigroup. after this "the fast money" halftime report and in the stevie cohen video. say you want to backtest an entire portfolio of stocks. market experts show you how through fidelity's extensive trading knowledge center. and fidelity gives you free research from 15 independent firms, with accuracy scores...
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welcome to the fast money halftime report. we're getting to the heart of the action. stocks hitting 2009 highs despite a greenback come pac. are the dollar and equities going end a tug-of-war. let's get to the word on the street. your fast money crew today. pete najarian. petty edwards and todd gordon of forex.com. >> you're looking very snazzy. you look sharp enough in fact to go to a birthday party today. >> i might have to do that. i might have to do that, thank you very much, melissa.
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>> happy birthday to the pit boss is my way of wishing you happy birthday. >> thank you. >> what do you make of the market action? we had a nice rally yesterday. not bad, the tape today, considering the big rally. >> no, smfkt, you have to be excited about the tape today because you keep wondering when is it going to be the time when people start to take profits off the table. they don't seem to want to do that right now. you look at the volatility index and that's been holding fairly steady and starting to pull back and ease back and part of that is due to the fact that we are seeing the selling pressure. people are much more comfortable. they don't feel the need to panic out of the market right now. in fact, they seem to be adding in some cases. when you look at the technology and you look at the smk and the smh and the areas that have been building into the final weeks of the year and those are the areas that ton build. when it comes to the financials, we're seeing strength among the brokers and the goldman sachss of the world and we're seeing the same pattern and not willing to pull the rip cord and get out
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completely. you're seeing put buying in the xlf. >> happy birthday, pete. >> you're welcome, buddy. in the xlf, we're seeing people buying the january 14 puts. so to what pete's saying, i think people are buying some of the stocks and they're not willing to commit fully in the fact that they're going to buy the overall index in case things collapse on them. they have the rip cord that they can pull on the down side. >> patty over to a big ingredient to today's gains is existing home sales data and we're seeing nice gains among the home builders and not sure that you're willing to play those. home depot and lowe's putting new 52-week high on the back of this. >> right. home depot and lowe's makes more sense to me than the homebuilders. if you think about it, when you come out and buy a foreclosure, you have to rehab that house. on average it's $5700 that you have to spend. you have to spend it somewhere. home depot and lowe's are much better beneficiaries of that. >> a big ingredient, todd gordon, in this recovery in the
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housing sector's ten-year yield and right now we're seeing those spike. they're remaining close to record levels. what are we seeing in the charge when it comes to record yields and mortgage rates are simply going higher. >> >> they sure are. >> we're seeing the 2010 yield curve break out to a new high. you're seeing the ten-year push push above 375 resistance. we've had four pushes. i believe this is the fifth and final push. lower resistance around 375 in the ten-year. as the yield curve is steepening anything above 410 and the move in the elongated stuff is running out of steam. >> time now for some options action after hitting peaks of 80. can you believe that, 80 during the height of the credit crisis dipping below the 20 intraday level. we're entering the holiday sort of weak here going into new year's. what do you anticipate for the vix? >> quite frankly, when you look at the movement we've had with the s&p over the last week or so
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and maybe going back a little bit further. you aren't seeing enough volatility in the movement to actually even support it here at 20. potentially, i think we can see ourselves get into the upper teens and maybe 17 and we're trading close to 19 right now. we might see this pull toward 17 if this keeps up because when you look at the s&p recently including the big move to the upside and then we stalled for the remainder of the day. you weren't getting this to support this 14, 15, 16-point s&p movement. the volatility definitely looks like we could come down even further than we are right now. >> go ahead. >> if i can add one thing on to that, the one thing i would caution people is to not be lulled to sleep. we tend to have lower volume and would also go about the lower volatility, so i would not necessarily say that the volatility is over, but it may be taking a couple of week holiday hiatus. >> let's move on and talk about
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the homebuilders once again. existing home sales did jump 7.4% in november. the buyers rushing to credit for first time home buyers. talked about home depot. home builders, is it time to plow? a group anticipating the recovery for some time. >> if i look at the chart i think that we're hitting up against resistance. it's had a good run-off of the bottom. i still see we have got more foreclosures coming. look at prime mortgages and how many are behind. given that, i think the home builders are going to be seeing pressure and frankly i think there's better places to play. >> todd, patty mentioned the chart, resistance. what do you see? >> it seems like with the deep yield curve the banks should be borrowing short, lending long, getting housing purchases going here. they extended home buyer program from november. maybe they're going to continue
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to see better home housing numbers. resistance is there, momentum is slowing. waiting for another shoe to drop in 2010. >> let's move tonight something else, airlines. us air leading 10%. former manager director and a "fast money" friend turned us on to the airline play a few weeks back. he's on the fast line with a trade update. since the time you recommended that trade go long in the airlines we've seen a nice run. prepared to take the trade off? >> gad after nan. the things that we identified a month ago when we discussed it, they continue to really be in place, which is mode capacity, price increase sticking and extra fees that didn't pass through continue to be passing through. the way i see, real potential for upside in terms of the numbers in january. >> when you hear all of the investment banks saying crude oil prices will average higher than what they are today, does
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that concern you as a headwind to the sector? >> well, because i think that the airlines the way the stocks have been trade, they've been trading, they've -- yes, they can connect, yes there's been a connect but this is a momentum trade in the sense that the numbers will be better than people expect because the yields are coming in stronger. and this is a trade group, remember that when the trade is working, until you start to see crazy pricing discounting and the market share gains which always comes back, airlines go back to the same pattern, until you see that, it works. >> gary, thanks for the take on the trade. pete, you've been a fan of jetblue. don't now if you still like that airline or others. >> i do. one thing that i would add to what gary's talking about, you're talking about efficiencies, lower fuel costs and the legacy airlines really seem to be those that i think are benefiting most. look at american, united, yes i like jetblue, southwest, some of
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the names are very important. but when you look at big name carriers that's where you're seeing the bang for your buck. american's on the upside as well as u.s. air. look at uaua, price target raised. they seemed unrealistic when we saw the numbers, yet the names continue to get activity in the options side. and they continue to accelerate to the upside. big movement in legacy care earli earliers. >> the fast and the furious. we answer your burning questions. micron, reports afterhours, buy or sell, j.j.? >> i would be a buyer right now. the options are pricing at about 6. 5% move on the day. but i would stick with trend and buy. >> after-hours red hatmaker of the lynux system. >> i don't think i could buy into it. you've got to be cautious at these levels. >> bed, bath, beyond initiated with overagent of morgan
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stanley. would you overweight? >> be careful if buy price breaks through 30 be there. it's a good concept, good place to be. >> oil invent to out tomorrow, are you a buyer before the data? >> i'm hesitant. it was a low draw last week, oil's higher. look for 1. 7 drawn barrels. euro dlaollar's holding support. i want to buy strength? peter shift will go head to head with trade to defend d$5,000 price target on gold. what was stevie cohen thinking when he appeared on a talk show to discuss his marital problems? "power lunch" has the video. see it next. more halftime report up next. a december dud. are the gold bugs ready to dump the trade?
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why gold is headed higher. and cyberattacks ramping unas new targets emerge. with obama stepping up efforts with his cyberczar, a top analyst reveals his top i.t. defense plays. one of the few lumps of cole in text stocking but is the liquidator reag up on this trade?
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welcome back to the halftime report. time to call the close. buy or sell going into 4:00 p.m. eastern time? j.j.? >> i'd be a buyer. s&p 500 futures room to drift up to 1124 even. >> patty? >> i've been watching the 1112s area on the s&p, we've gone through that, we're sitting at 1118. it doesn't look convincing to me that we're breaking out.
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i think i'd be concentrating on individual stocks for right now. >> todd, buy or seller? >> buy, hesitantly. seeing the eurodollar after the lows the dollar strengthening story is repatriation. >> birthday boy? >> hesitant buyer as well. a long list of great stocks as far as dividend yields tonight at 5:00. >> nice tease. see you tonight. that's it for us here at "the halftime report." on "fast money," the last-minute retail buys before christmas. not talking mittens or snowblowers, mall stocks, ones that got hit by the nor'easter. michelle? >> we're going to look at the lost decade, should you avoid stocks over the next ten years or are they a bargain hunter's delight? still to come on "power lunch" -- >> financial stocks have been money in the bank since the market bottomed. that index up more than 120%. is there still time to cash in next year? inside the numbers straight ahead. plus, after ten years,
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crime, punishment and the scram of the century. will your money be safer in the next decade? a special report. ? late, how your iphone, blackberry and apps are making business travel bet somewhere profitable, too. the second profitable hour of "power lunch" starts right now. welcome back to the second hour hoff "power lunch." sue herera off today. i'm tyler mathisen. stocks rising for a third consecutive day, strong existing home sales for november offsetting softer than expected third quarter gdp report. the dow industrials, let's take a look. can it flip over? it always does this on me, flips over. >> wait. >> there is it up 54 points. boeing, dupont, kraft, at&t, biggest blue chip winners. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera, technology stocks dominating the list of stocks hitting 52-week highs. among them, jabil circuit, san
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dichk, nvidia. >> the dollar putting pressure on gold after falling to levels not seen in seven weeks. precious metal off of its lows of the session. showing a -- it wants to go up. wants to. >> it does. i guess it does. >> yes. >> stocks want to rise, like information wants to be free. >> our market reporters, beginning with bob pisani. do stocks want to rise today? >> reporter: thanks, tyler. 1120 on the s&p 500. we hit that 10:15 eastern time enough for a new train day high for the year. we're almost 24% on the s&p 500. that is a good year the best year since 2003 when it was up 26%. we'll see how we weend. a one-year chart. home building stocks strong today. it's been a tough three or four months. they hit highs several months ago. as we've seen data improve,
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they've been getting better recently. last days strong somewhere doing well on existing home sales up 7.4% for november. airlines, similar situation, improving revenue outlook for the last couple of months helped the airlines overall. ubs raises price target. a lot having a very good day here. numbers don't look so gad. tradertalk.cnbc.com. up 42% as jabil had a good earnings report and raised guidance today. a long time before you see the nasdaq up 42%. one of the best years in a long time for them. >> it's been incredible. when we lad the big bounce off march the nasdaq came back quick somewhere more than major indices. approaching highs of the session. yahoo! doing a global shutdown between christmas day and new year's. something that's frequent in silicon valley, they're trying
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to cut costs. take 2 interactive reduced guidance by a huge amount and selling one of the games distribution units. down 3.3%. bob gave you three airline names. i want to give you two more traded here at nasdaq. jetblue up 6.2%. uaua united up 10.2%. tremendous strength there. td ameritrade, upgraded to outperform, 22.50 the new target there. amcore raised guidance up 14.4%. >> you may have noticed oil prices turned around in the last few minutes. we're above $74 a barrel now. you may be wondering why that happened. keep in mind, thin volume here now, but also we are going to get a report this afternoon from the american petroleum institute on supply and the energy department tomorrow morning. and the expectation, according to energy, for a big drop in crude supplies and 3.5 million barrels down for crude, 2.5
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million for distillates. if we see a drop, some may be trying to position themselves ahead of an occurrence. that may be why we saw the turnaround. people looking at positive data out of china, showing oil demand up sharply in november. that's november positive sign for the bulls. back to you. >> thank you. the outlook for banking in 2010 may die pend on whethepend whet proverbial glass half full or half empty. covering the big banks for credit suisse. welcome. you have a rather unhappy forecast for banking in 2010, why? >> well, i wouldn't call it unhappy. the industry's going to be challenged and many things that the banks have got to get right rite in 2010 to be successful. >> they are? >> if i talk about execution first, i'm going to talk about three areas that we highlight in the outlook for 2010. first, it's around the
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distressed assets, balance sheets have weak, they're going continue to work for 2010, some of your other speaks are of the morning talked about, mortgage as an example p section ind going to be around regulation. listening to what's going on in washington and globally, that will redefine banking. banks have to pay attention and respond accordingly. lastly, around risk management and a subset of that is the information that banks have at their access to do their job. >> do you buy what jim is saying? he sees -- maybe i overstated he sees a challenging year ahead. do you think that the big banks can surmount specifically the challenges that jim outlines? >> there are challenges and i would put regulation at the forefront of them and the continuing effects of what is certainly at best a lack luser economy. we tend to favor those with the strongest balance sheets and earning power and think they'll succeed than some of the beiges who are in a weaker position. >> what about the steep yield
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curve? a banker borrows money from the fed for nothing and lends it out at far higher rates. i mean, larry kudlow likes to say, even an idiot banker can make money doing that. >> it's clear the environment of that -- that is put in place for the bankers is to help them make erngi e e earningans the regulators and policymakers have made it conducive -- >> you saying regulations are going to offset completely what is so obvious on the yield curve? >> i think regulations will put a cost base into the institution that doesn't exist today and management disciplines and new rules and policies, a simple example, leverage, higher capital standard. >> less leverage, more capital. >> how much of a problem with toxic assets? we were hoping a government private/partnership plan might do upyard ward of a hundred
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billion. now it's a trickle and it's worrying me. >> maybe the "p" should have stood for public relations to get the price of the assets up and it was successful. more so that the government didn't have to put a lot of capital into it. >> you mentioned the idea that you want to go after banks that have the strongest balance sheets like which? >> well, in my universe the two we've been recommending jpmorgan and u.s. bancorp, early to repay the t.a.r.p., they have strong earnings and capital. they're both able to tack advantage of those kinds of asset sales whether the sale of ace distressed institution or interesting sales of distressed assets as well. >> everybody picks jpmorgan. it's not original. that's okay after the huge rise it's had this year you think you can get more? >> i do. in fact, i would favor it relative to the others on, you know, book value, it look as trackive and look as tra attrac
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book values "options action" of normalized earns. this is one of the companies able to execute. >> quick thought, jim? >> i wanted to touch on asset sales. there's a lot of dry powder collected, former bank executives gearing up to do asset acquisitions, that will be a key issue in 2010. >> thank you. guys, retailers are heading into that homestretch, three days until christmas. you haven't got out to buy the wii. how are the retails are faring compared to downturn a year ago jane wells joins us in california. jane? >> reporter: guys, listen up. there's going to be a test. i'm going to ask you a question at the oven this. which retail stocks performed best after recession en? think about that. i'm going to try to talk and get on the escalator at the same time. with three days left. gas consumer strategy says sales
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discounts -- hi, how are you doing? going to kick into high gear. the weakened storm did really slow sales growth considerably. let's look at numbers. the international council of shopping centers says sales for the week ending saturday were up 0.4% from a year ago, the week before up 2. 4%. however, only 71% of consumers say they finished shopping compared to 80% same time last year. so the hope is that a lot of shopping is getting done as we speak. >> this past weekend was heavier than the previous weekend. yesterday was heavier than the previous monday. so we're seeing heavier traffic as we get closer to the holiday season. >> reporter: okay. the general manager says if they can meet or maybe exceed last year sales targets retailers will consider that a win. don't show the graphic yet. guy, which retail stocks do you think performed best in the year after recession? >> walmart. >> nordstrom.
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>> i don't have a guess. >> reporter: show you the numbers, guys. my ifb is dying. i heard walmart. that is the correct answer. nordstrom, walmart, and saks the best performing stocks, in the year following recession, averaging returns of 28% to 64%. the high end and the low end and the train end. >> and then very little in the middle. what's the traffic like today, jane? does it feel like more people are taking off work out there doing the shopping? >> reporter: no, you know, it's only after 10:00 in the morning here. it's starting to get some traffic. i'm seeing men walking around with vacant stares so i'm heading them down to neiman-marcus. >> thanks very much. happy holidays to you, kiddo. >> straight ahead -- hedge fund hot shot, steve cohen of s.a.c. capital, we call him stevie, but he hates that. as you've never seen him before.
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reclusive money manager keeps a low profile. what was he doing spilling beans about his divorce on a trashy tv talk show? you've got to see it to believe it. you've got to see new 52-week highs in technology sector, hair-raising as the hair on his head. google at $600.36 a share.
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welcome back do "power lunch." checking out the stock market today, i'm matt nesto with the real time flash. the price of oil, what a reversal. indicative of the tug-of-wars that we're seeing over sentiment and direct in the marketplace today. things, in a word, are screwy. take a look at home boys as i call them, home builders. they are celebrating, they chose to focus on naturally the exest ig home sales data, better than expected. all 12 members of the home builders index higher for 4% gain. look at kb's, up 8%, pulte up 5%. the tug-of-war, look at transports versus airlines. take a look at transports, they're, well, lower, little change, every single airline is higher -- excuse me 12 of 13 airlines higher here today.
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they were celebrating the low oil price but that has turned around today. strong economy, rising rates. what is it? you have to take a side in the marketplace. must-see video today. steve cohen, the press shy hedge fund manager and his second wife alex appearing on "christina" in 1992 the same year he sarted s.a.c. capital, there to discuss his what she thought wut his too co cozy relationship with his ex-wife in an episode entitled he acts like her husband, too. >> you used to talk to this woman three hours at a time. >> i don't think it was -- if i -- i did talk -- when i was separated i did tuk her for three hours. >> "new york post" reporter uncovered the mading video. she joins us on the phone from orlando, florida. good to see you. talk to you.
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we didn't show the whole video. what's the most startling thing that you saw on this? besides the fact that he's secretive and decided to do this at all? >> i think it was the main shocking thing, when i was told about this, i didn't believe it was true. i think the most shocking think was the fact that it was. here he is, here's this guy who is quiet, some people don't -- people are saying we don't know what his voice sounds like and here he is being extremely open about the problems in his relationship. >> kaja, i wonder, in light of the fact it was a week ago that mr. cohen's ex-wife asked to reopen their divorce settlement in light of monies that he's made subsequent to that and with allegations that he derived some moneys from insider trader, why does this video come out now? >> yeah, i think the video comes out now exactly because of that, because, you know, 20 years after they divorced, his ex-wife
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sued him and said, i think that he cheated me out of moneys in the divorce, which the cohen camp says is completely false and they denial of the allegations. but you know, the obvious feud, you know, started way back when. i think it sparked memories. >> tyler's question more directly, was it her side, the ex-wife that tipped you off to the video? >> well, i can't say who tipped me off to the video. >> of course you can! >> part of her statement to us when we asked them about it, which we didn't get in, was that they wanted to say we did not provide -- we did not provide this video and we didn't want anything to do with the video. you decide -- you take what you want from them. >> it's dennis kneale. steve cohen, i sat next to steve eight charity dinner a table of eight people a few years ago, steve, i've tried to get you to come on our show a number of times if you would talk more and come on, we couldn't do items like this on a individual dpre
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1992. join us, we'd like have you here. isn't this a lawsuit filed by an ex-wife who is just ticked off because her husband got rich after she divorced him? >> you know, i have no idea. i mean i read the suit and it done look like she's saying, look you got rich after i divorced you. she's only asking for $300 million. she's saying, look i feel you hid assets at the time of the divorce you had more than you said you did. >> but it's from 20 years ago. don't you figure she might have filed that lawsuit, oh, i don't know two years after they got divorce? to do it so many years later seems unjust. >> yeah, that's for a judge to decide. it may get thrown out. maybe there would be merit in there. but certainly does -- it comes at a time, which is really what is more interesting, it comes at a time when there are a lot of questions about steve cohen and s.a.c. capital and whether authorities are looking into insider trading and chatter.
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of course, always chatter around him partly because he's so quiet how he makes -- how he's consistent. >> messy divorces stay messy for a long time. if, for some reason, i wanted to see this entire video, where would i find it? >> well, yeah, i am trying -- i'm hope week can put more of it up there. but -- >> we should point out, by the way, not only was the marriage canceled but so was the show. >> new jersey spanish. you're supposed to answer "new york post."com. >> that was the right reference on there. thanks very much. >> it's on the -- we have a snippet on the newyorkpost.com. he's on the show for a half hour roughly and there's an interaction with the audience. >> he did that before the guy earned billions of dollars.
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you know, you don't do that when you're worth billions. >> why he's secretive now, it's about the money. he wasn't secretive then. >> yeah, obviously. this is the same year he started the fund. when you see him on the show, it's not as if he's quiet. there's another guest who sit there's quietly and let's the wives talk it out. and he, you know, is very chatty and speaks openly. that's shocking. >> nice job, kaja. thanks for not giving up the ex-wife's lawyer for giving you that videotape. appreciate it. tyler? period. paragraph. >> apps for your troid. tens of thousands of smart phone apps. indispensable ones for business travellers. >> the key stocks in the smart phone app play. apple, research in motion, trying, motorola, google.
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six-month airline index up 4% today. but look at the six-month gain, better nan a double there. who would have thunk it with airlines? ubs boosting airline price targets, that quintet of airlines in the green this day. >> a downloadable app for the iphone, blackberry, indispensable among business travelers who rely on them to make organizations, arrange itineraries. think of them as personal concierge living inside your smart phone. details from "new york times" reporter martha white. martha? thanks for joining us.
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the app, this is hot. it's lit up the iphone. >> absolutely. apps are huge, as i think everybody knows. and apps for business travelers have just exploded. >> some of them are organizational, some based on location, right? >> yes, that's true. those are the two basic types. >> what are the hottest? >> among the organizational ones, a couple of the bigger ones out there are oned that are actually built by companies that do a desktop-based managed travel platforms for corporations and the ones i talked to have seen a demand from their clients that they built mobile versions of these for their clients' business travelers, a couple of the big names are concur and rearden commerce. third-party apps, among theed by travelers, i was in contact with tr trippit and ireceipt.
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they let you organize itinerary and expenses. >> most apps are more fun. you have the shazam app, hold it up to a speaker and it can list tonight song and name it. gives us a fun one in the business travel face. curb your enthusiasm they conceive of a return of sign fell and george gets rich of an itoilet app that let's you find a clean toilet anywhere in the world. >> clean one that would be a feet of technology. i would say that the most popular sort of nonwork-related one that business travels are mention to me was the kindle. they liked to sort of make the most of their down time. among other ones i would have to say there's one that let's you touch your smart phone to another person's smart phone and it automatically transfers your contacts, sort of like a virtual fist bump if you will.
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>> that's unhealthy. i don't want to touch my iphone to anyone's iphone. happy holidays. >> what's your favorite app, dennis? >> i have no idea. >> you don't have any favorite apps? >> i like ones where you can get the song. >> if it's able to figure out the song, don't we have 30 million listening devices in the hands of americans that say we can set off a bomb at this place? aren't we able to listen to conversations and measure them against a database of spoken words? just a thought. just a thought. kind of creepy. okay. >> on that note -- >> tyler, take it away. >> let's talk more about apps. download the best of all apps cnbc real time app today for your iphone and ipod touch, live screaming real time quotes and charts before, during and after market hours. cnbc's exclusive breaking news alerts, video on demand and
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create your own stocks watch list. it is all free. it even turns just like that. look at that. caterpillar shares. cnbc real time app get it on the apple app store. cool thing. >> coming up on the half hour. >> we do it for free, that app. we make it up on volume. head to the floor of the big board. >> the decade of enron, ebbers, martha, madoff. after all of the scandals and investigations and the trials, is law enforcement toughened up enough to keep your money safe?
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dow jones industrial average higher by 54 points, 10468. take a look at the vix, below 20 since august 2008. yes, 2008. more than a year ago. trading at 1970. what does that mean? for more on the market moves back down to the floor of the new york stock exchange, allen valdez is standing by. good to see you. a lot of people get nervous when
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they see the vix drop that low, a sign of complacency which people think is a bad sign for the stock market. >> no, i think this mark's going to continue to rally though the vix is low like is it, it is complacency but in general the market's moan tum playing now and it's going to take the year and take the year out and go with it on an upward swing. >> what about volume? apart from friday, it was volume on steroids because it was all of the triple witch or rebalancing. volume this month has been very, very low. can you make a lot of headway on low volume? >> that's the problem. this isn't your grandfather's market anymore. now this mark's dominated by frequency traders, momentum players. we don't get people buying the market like they used to. i went to a party the other night and noun roh o one's talkt the stock market. no one's talking about the market. >> that's a good sign. >> no. >> what about the fact we have the dollar moving high, interest
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rates moving higher and stocks moving higher. all sending us the same signal. we haven't seen that in a very, very long time. got to be, what, more than a year. >> yeah, usually it's reverse play that's been going on. but you're right. is it the end of the year. seeing markups in the good stocks. google, apple, they're marking all of the techs up right now. but in general that's going to change come january, we've seen the dollar play, until they do something with interest rates. >> good to see you. >> happy holidays. financial villains of the decade, the litany is getting longer all the time. ken lay, dennis kozlowski, the two bernies, but wait, there's more. cnbc senior correspondent scott cohn is here with a look at ten years of crime, punishment, and investor fear. >> wow. sell it. >> not just fear among investors, but flat-out anger has marked this decade.
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and prosecutors and politicians have been more than willing to take the anger and run with it. a decade of boom, bust, and busts. >> it felt like the french revolution. it felt like the guillotine and a howling mob outside the courthouse and there was a demand for it not jut but vengeance. >> reporter: from enron to madoff a decade of angry investors and epic scandals. >> did you imagine you were going be to the sheriff of wall street? >> no capacity to see how that emerged and evolved. did i know there were structural issues on wall street? sure. >> reporter: the fed's tore into enron like an organized crime family and took on worldcom's bernie ebbers as if he was america's most wanted. bernie ebbers, guilty as charged. enron's ceo jeff skilling guilty on 19 of 28 counts. and enron chairman ken lay,
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guilty on all counts, only compared because he dropped dead six weeks after the verdict. even martha stewart got caught in the dragnet for lying to investigators in an insider trading case, domestic diva turned convicted criminal. >> i've been involved in a lot of cases. i've been involved with terrorists and never have i gotten more hate mail than little old ladies from iowa saying how dare you including my mother. >> reporter: but the long arm of the law would have limits. >> i can hold myself, hold my head high right now because i know i'm innocent and i know i never intended to obstruct justice. >> reporter: frank quattrone cleared of obstruction charges and implication he inflated the tech bubble. then there's new york stock exchange chairman dick grasso, sued by spitzer for ex-setive play. grasso refused to back down.
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the case ultimately thrown out. >> ridiculous decision but so be it. >> reporter: spitzer himself, forced from office for patronizing prostitutes. >> how do you feel? >> reporter: bernie madoff, the scam of the century. the 2008 financial crisis exposed a $65 billion ponzi scream, and a deeply flawed regulatory system. the decade ends in many ways much the way it began, wall street littered with scandals, investors out for blood, all bound to keep the perps walking well into the next decade. >> a decade that will begin with a supreme court hear and maybe a new trial for jeff skilling. trial notice hedge fund insider trading scandal. more where all of that came from. you saw in the story we spoke with elliott spitz, like it or not a central figure in the
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white collar crime wars. nor on "street signs." you can see the whole thing right now on cnbc.com. don't forget cnbc special, ten years in the making premiering new year's eve 8:00 p.m. eastern here on cnbc. you look back on all of those things and think of enron at the time the largest bankruptcy, the eighth largest company in the country. >> seventh. >> the seventh. and now that in light of everything else that's happened feels even quaint to me. >> it does. it absolutely does. you look at the things that enron was accused of doing versus what happened in the financial crisis a year ago and it really gives you perspective. >> let's stay with this, squcot. we'll bring in tom currin, a securities lawyer. tom, welcome. good to have you with us. has anything really changed? >> well, you know, willie sutton when arrested for robbing banks, they asked him why do you keep doing this? he says, that's where the money is. i don't know if it's ever going
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to change. you're always going to have a balance being struck, we want the financial markets to be creative? order to fuel business. so there's always going it a gray area. it's not regulated to death, but in that gray area, you're always going to be operating people who want to take money dishonestly. >> i'm no big fan of regulation, overregulation but it seemed like there was an attitude in the country that financial crime should not be treated as harshly as physical crimes and yet the destruction that happens is incredibly painful. have we had an attitudele shift when it comes to financial crime when it comes to prosecuting and pursuit? >> i think there's ace shift, an importance but the market itself it swings like a pen delum. a lot of harm caused but i'd be hesitant. we still kind of are, i think we're better to take a step
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back. the pendulum is swinging. >> at start of the decade that meltdown which led to sarbanes-oxley, i'm wondering, do investors are sometimes get a false sense of security when government moves in and passes new rules and passes new laws and says, there, now you're safe, and then we aren't tough enough the next time we put money into another scam? >> i think you're absolutely right. i think there are perceptions that are fostered by the rules and the regulations. and i think that the 33 and 34 act passed under fdr as part of the new deal meant to reinstill that confidence. the confidence in the paper filings in the country were shaken by enron. and the confidence in the enforcement of securities laws were shakenly madoff. madoff wasn't caught. madoff walked into the fbi's office. >> right. that's a scary point. >> people need to be vigilant. caveat emmer to was not removed by the securities act. 3500 full time s.e.c. employees,
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tons of register people they have to supervise and untold number of unregistered. >> bernie madoff you talk about the pendulum swinging and what bernie did was horrible. bernie ebbers will in prison until he's 87 if he lives that long. has the pen delum swung too far? are we trying to correct things through the criminal justice system that can't be corrected just the by sending ceos to prison? >> i'm not so sure. the people who run our financial markets are in a way given the keys to the kingdom, the goose that lays the golden eggs if they betray that, there has to be accountability and some perception of effective enforcement, even if terms of retro active enforcement and punishment. given what mr. madoff did for years and years and years, that i think you know a signal needed to be sent this was not going to be toleratetolerated.
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it does not mean it's not going to happen again. i'll point out, again, he wasn't caught by anybody. >> tom currin, thanks very much. scott, same to you. december 31st, hour special we call it "10 years in the making", tech to corporate crime, best and worst deals of the decade, autos, house, sum it all up, december 31st, new year's eve at 6 p.m. eastern. you'll have time to see ryan seacrest late. >> thank you. >> if you want. >> next the internet, cell phones, green products, cable news, tattoos, all exploded in popularity in the last decade. do americans like those trends? the good, the bad, the ugly after the break. tracking the new 52-week highs. technology dominating that list. there you see a list of five such hitting 52-week highs today. (announcer) they've been tested, built and driven like no other.
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that's a tough act to follow, 7,000% move in hanson. earlier i told you about the big pop that we're seeing in the home builders following the housing data here today. well, we've beaten it. check out the mortgage insurance group. talk about momentum, 20%, 15% moves in some of the stocks on down the line, all of them. what's more astound, is that s&p cut the ratings on five mortgage insurers today with very caustic language about, well, the pace
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of the recovery and the losses these guys will continue to take that are larger than s&p forecasts. but the market sides with the economic data and not s&p. back to you. >> got it. the past decade the worst decade in 50 years according to analysis at pew research, 50% of americans have a negative outlook on the past ten years the highest percentage in a half century. even worse than the 1970s which only comes in with 16% negative. joining us discuss findings michael dimmic, associate director of pew research. we had so much fun on the segment yesterday, people talking about how they felt about the invention of the internet and all of these things. we'll get to details. first, the worst decade, even since the '70s? does that make sense to you? >> well, it's all retrospective now. we asked people to think back to the last five decades in the country and they looked back on all of the previous decades '60s, '70s '80s, '90s.
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the current decades feels pretty bad by comparison. >> you asked them about various inventions that happened in the last ten years. 69% of people say the cell phone was a change for the better, green products, e-mail. 65% say the internet was a change for the bet. >> that's right. >> what about -- why wasn't that number 100%? >> there are people out there who think life's getting too complicated, they're not happy with those changes. you see that in particular when it comes to mobile devices like blackberries and iphones more people expressing idea those are not changes for the bet. >> did you give them these options or instead have people fill in blanks and you ran through all of the data in i'm stunned that google didn't show up here and i think it's probably one of the most important new technologies of the past decade. >> right. we listed 20 different changes that have happened in recent years and asked people whether they generally thought they were change forward the better or for
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the worst. we didn't ask about google particularly. we asked about internet blogs in general, social networking sites. people have mixed feelings about thousand changes. >> where are they on blogs? i can't find that in the chart. blogs bad for the decade. >> a little bit more good than bad but not by much. a big generational divide on an issue like that, a lot of young people think those are changes for the better. but older folks don't think that way. they might say changes for the worst. >> i'm interested in the idea that most americans have an optimistic outlook on the next decade, 3 out of 5 say the next decade's going to be better than the one just passed but folks in my demographic group, 45 to 55 or something like that are the most pessimistic, why? >> i think that people in the middle -- >> why do i feel so bad? >> i think economics is a big part of it right now. people who are in the job market, people thinking about their own retirement, those
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kinds of concerns are weighing heavily on their mines. younger people still see a long future ahead of them. older folks maybe feel already some of the security of the safety -- >> summed up my feelings beautifully. >> they realize they're not retiring is the whole idea. >> how about i realize that the end of the decade i'm going to start my 60 and that's depressing, all right? that's why i'm less optimistic. >> you won't be in your 60s until your 61. >> exactly. that is true. >> 7% of the people think more tattoos is a good thing. >> my 21-year-old nephew is one and keeps getting more all the time and i wish he would just stop. thanks very much, michael, for being with us. foreign policy magazine put out ten worst predicts for 2009. two that caught our eye. one that happened right here on cnbc. jimmy rogers on october 10, 2008, more than a yearing asaid, this is going to unleash rampant inflation around the world. you're going to have currencies
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gyrating all over the world, they're unleashing inflationary holocaust because they don't know what else to do. >> and there's george soros as well, right who said, in february, before we hit bottom, that the economy went into free fall and is still falling and we don't know where the bottom will be until we get there and there's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom. i'm sure george is arguing we haven't seen the bottom and that was a false move there. >> the one that happened in march? >> one lesson here is, if you go back and look at tape from a year ago, things are at their worst, don't believe the doom. there are countermeasures, things that regulators and company and invest considers do to get us out of the mess. >> we're too cheery when things are good and apocalyptic when things are bad. >> you make money when you do the opposite, mr. tip, who bet on the banks at worst moment $7. 5 billion profit. >> far more than the guy who bet
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on the subprime debacle. >> and health care stocks. >> all right. and speaking of which, they are calling it the lost decade for stocks. went all over the place for ten years and ended up back where they began. does that mean that you should avoid stocks for the next ten years or load up on bargains? what's go on with markets today. move higher in the stock market and yields sharply higher as well as we see selling in the treasury on the back of good economic data.
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some people are calling the past decade the lost decade for equity. what does the next year and the next decade what do they hold? tocks the way to go or should you stay far, far away? jamie cox president of harris financial group and don deway. welcome to you both. mr. cox, i find myself wondering at this point, after indexing has not worked for a decade,
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whether now is the time to be an indexer, what do you think? >> i don't. i don't think being an indexer works at all. last ten years it hasn't worked i don't think it's going to work in the next ten years. i think asset allocation, proper active management is the way to go when stock picking. that's the methed to prosperity in the market. >> do you agree or disagree? >> i think what we're entering a period there's slow velocity of capital through the markets. we see the credit markets disrupted. we're coming out of a volatile time in the environment and with that generally leads to is volatility and if you're going to invest long in the stock market you have to have long time horizons. >> i should buy indexes or not, donald? >> generally speaking i tell you, i think that there's some areas of the market that make more sense for indexing. the more efficient areas of the market generally speaking the less efficient those mark places are. you probably focus more on active management. that being stated, we see
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decision no the marketable securities better opportunities in private equity getting up closer to money and have direct ownership of assets. >> jamie, awful lot of people are plying this lost decade thing saying forget about index fund but was the s&p index up 20% year to date, up 60% from the march lows. could he be wrong. >> i don't think so. let's say it this way, take one year out of last decade and have one bad year that can wreck the entire average for the year. that's what happened this time. and what happens is you disregard all of the other years. you disregard dividends, you disregard rebalancing. you disregard asset al location and the other things that mat. >> if i take bad games oust a baseball season i hit a thousand every year. i mean, you know you just have to invest over the long term. i have got to say that most
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people are in a heck of a lot of people who have invested from 1995 to today, they would have done better in a lot of places other than equities, mr. cox. >> well, yeah, think about this year, for example. you had people hiding out in the corporate bond market and did better, in some cases than stocks. i think that there are going to be times when you distortions that provide opportunities to make money in different asset classes. but i still that that equity returns over time trump most of the asset classes that are available to investors. >> all right. mr. cox, thank you very much. don, sorry we had to breviate it. appreciate your being with us. the geithner t-shirt. and the tiger watch. not sure whether it's the tiger watch or -- >> we'll explain after the break because "empty calories" coming up right up.
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